Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Kay Public Advisory


871 
WTPZ32 KNHC 082358
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
600 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...KAY CONTINUES TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 114.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning from north of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De
Las Palomas on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula,
and discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Puerto Cortes to Punta
Abreojos on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of San Evaristo northward along the entire east coast of
the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in
mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 114.6 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion 
should continue through Friday.  A slower northwestward to 
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and 
continue into Saturday.  A turn to the west is expected by Saturday 
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass near the 
northwest coast of the Baja peninsula Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the 
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) 
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical
Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through
Friday.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the
central Baja California peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday…

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico:  2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California:  2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 8
inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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