000 WTPZ32 KNHC 051732 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022 ...KAY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 106.8W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas * Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely monitor the progress of Kay as Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kay is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi