009 WTPZ42 KNHC 042036 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Kay. Although the convective pattern is still a bit ragged, banding features have improved on the south side of the cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed peak winds around 35 kt to the northeast of the center. Based on that data and the T2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity is increased a little to 35 kt. Kay is a large storm with its cloud field extending several hundred miles across, and some of the outer bands are moving across the coast of southwestern Mexico. The center is located a little to the north of the previous track, and the estimated motion is now 290/11 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and then the north. Overall, there has been little change in the model guidance this cycle and the solutions remain relatively tightly clustered. Despite the tightly-clustered guidance, the GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads encompass as far east as the Gulf of California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial position and motion, but ends up close to the previous track beyond 48 h. Kay is likely to strengthen during the next few days while it remains over warm water and embedded in a very moist environment. Although the Rapid Intensification Indices in the SHIPS model are relatively high, rapid intensification in the short term appears unlikely given the broad structure of the cyclone and expected moderate shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely consistent with the previous one and shows steady strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. Beyond that time, weakening is expected due to cooler SSTs. Regardless of the details, Kay is expected to be a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Kay is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico. 2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor Kay as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.1N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 16.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 17.6N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 21.1N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 24.9N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 28.3N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi