Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Kay Forecast Discussion


165 
WTPZ42 KNHC 090316 CCA
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number  19...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Corrected numbering of key messages

Based on satellite fixes, the center of Kay is estimated to have 
moved back over the waters of the east Pacific to the north of 
Punta Eugenia.  Most of the deep convection is occurring over the 
northern semicircle of the circulation and the cloud tops continue 
to gradually warm.  Using subjective Dvorak Current Intensity 
numbers, the advisory intensity is set at 55 kt, although this could 
still be generous.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate Kay in a few hours.

Steady weakening should occur during the next 48 hours due to 
passage over progressively cooler ocean waters west of the northern 
Baja California peninsula.  The official intensity forecast is a 
little below the previous NHC prediction and is in good agreement 
with the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM model guidance.  This is 
also on the high end of the intensity model suite.  The system is 
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 48 hours, 
if not sooner.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or around 330/12 kt. 
A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should 
steer it on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading for the 
next 24 to 36 hours.  Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly 
shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually 
southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern 
Pacific.  The official track forecast has been shifted a little 
south and west of the previous one, toward the latest dynamical 
model consensus.

Although it is weakening, Kay remains a fairly large tropical 
cyclone.  Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far 
from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast 
track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including 
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of 
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning.  Flash, 
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern 
California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular 
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible 
beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions should continue to
spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 28.4N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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