Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Kay Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 042034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR KAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 104.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 113.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




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