Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Kay Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 051438
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO ON
THE EAST COAST AND PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 100SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 107.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 111.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




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