Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100850
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182022
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

GOES-16 proxy-visible satellite data and surface observations from 
the El Salvador International Airport suggest the center of Julia is 
passing very near the coast of El Salvador this morning. A band of 
deep convection has persisted over the southern and eastern portions 
of the circulation, where tropical-storm-force winds are thought to 
still be occurring. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT data swaths 
missed capturing Julia's wind field, and there have not been any 
recent high-resolution passive microwave overpasses to assess the 
structure of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for 
this advisory, based on a T2.5/35 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from 
TAFB.

The initial motion of Julia is west-northwestward at 290/13 kt, and
this general motion is expected to continue today as the cyclone is
steered by a ridge to the north. Weakening is expected as the center
moves near or over the coast of Central America, and Julia is
forecast to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate
by tonight. However, it is possible that the surface circulation
dissipates even sooner than forecast once it moves over the rugged
terrain of Central America. Regardless, heavy rainfall is likely to
continue over portions of Central America through today.

Although Julia is forecast to dissipate by tonight, residual
moisture and vorticity associated with its remnants could become
absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the west, associated
with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For information
on the potential for new development offshore of southern Mexico
later this week, please see the latest eastern North Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this morning over 
portions of the coasts of Honduras and El Salvador within the 
warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible today along the 
Pacific coast of Guatemala.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 13.4N  89.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 14.3N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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