Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion

180 
WTNT41 KNHC 292042
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

Joyce's center continues to be exposed to the southwest of its
convective mass as shear persists across the circulation.  There's 
generally been a slight reduction in the objective and subjective 
estimates from the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set 
to 35 kt.

The storm is moving erratically northwestward at about 5 kt.  Joyce 
is still forecast to turn northward on Monday due to a deep-layer 
trough over the north-central Atlantic, with only minor 
disagreements on the exact longitude of recurvature.  The new 
forecast is a touch west of the last one, consistent with the 
consensus guidance.  The intensity forecast seems straightforward 
with unabating shear and plentiful environmental dry air causing 
gradual weakening, with no significant change from the last NHC 
forecast.  The remnant low might dissipate into a trough sooner 
than shown here, similar to the latest ECMWF forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 22.2N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 22.6N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 23.3N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 24.0N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1800Z 25.0N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/0600Z 26.2N  49.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake