Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT21 KNHC 280231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112024
0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  44.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  44.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  44.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N  46.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N  47.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N  48.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N  49.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.6N  49.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N  49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.4N  49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG