Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Javier Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040235
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Javier is nearly post-tropical, having produced little to no deep 
convection since late this morning. Post-tropical transition 
will likely conclude tonight since the cyclone is moving over 
cold water that should prevent the redevelopment of organized deep 
convection. Earlier ASCAT data showed peak winds near 40 kt, so the 
initial intensity was held at that value, possibly conservatively 
so. Without deep convection to sustain it, Javier should slowly 
weaken over the next several days, eventually dissipating by the 
middle of next week. The new official intensity forecast is nearly 
identical to the previous one and is close to the intensity model 
consensus.

The tropical storm is now moving away from the Baja California 
peninsula. Low-level easterly steering flow should cause Javier to 
turn westward by the end of the weekend. By then the cyclone is 
forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it should continue 
westward through the middle of the week until it dissipates. The NHC 
track forecast is heavily based on the TVCN track consensus aid with 
no changes of note made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 26.8N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 27.6N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  05/0000Z 28.0N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 27.9N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 27.6N 126.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z 27.0N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 26.7N 130.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 26.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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