Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Javier Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030852
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a recent deep
convective burst with -78C cloud tops just to the west of the
surface circulation center.  A 0116 UTC SSMI/S microwave image
showed a primary curved band wrapping around 65 percent of the
cyclone's surface center.  Based on a compromise of the latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, a 0428 UTC SATCON 
analysis of 49 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass 
revealing a few peak-wind retrievals of 39 kt (undersampling 
likely), the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.  

There's a small window of opportunity that Javier could strengthen 
slightly today before it moves over a gradient of progressively 
cooler waters of less than 24C this evening.  This negatively 
contributing oceanic parameter, along with an increasingly stable 
surrounding environment should cause Javier to become a 
post-tropical cyclone Sunday, and a remnant low-pressure system by 
early next week.

Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/13 
kt.  This general motion should continue through today in response 
to the mid-level steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge 
anchored over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  By early 
Sunday, the global models are in good agreement that this ridge 
should build westward and influence Javier to slowly turn toward 
the west-northwest to west while the cyclone weakens.  The NHC 
forecast follows suit and lies close to the TVCE and NOAA HFIP HCCA 
consensus aids.

Javier's wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory using a
fortuitous 0430 UTC METOP-B ASCAT overpass.  Although the NHC
forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico,
any additional eastward deviation from the official track forecast
could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall 
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in 
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 24.0N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 25.4N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 26.8N 118.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 27.3N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  05/0600Z 27.5N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1800Z 27.3N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 26.9N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z 26.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z 26.0N 134.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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