000 WTNT24 KNHC 260253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 81.4W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 81.4W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 83.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.7N 84.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.2N 83.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.6N 83.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 81.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH