Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Howard Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 102037
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

The infrared satellite appearance of Howard has continued to degrade 
this afternoon with little to no deep convection remaining. The 
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB supports 
lowering the analyzed intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Howard 
should continue to weaken this evening as it moves over 
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable 
environment. Numerical guidance suggests Howard will not reacquire 
any sustained deep convection, however, periodic brief pulses of 
convection are possible over the next 12 - 24 h. The official 
forecast shows Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone within the 
next 12 h, and it could happen as soon as this evening. The cyclone 
should open into a remnant trough by 60 h.

Howard continues to move west-northwestward with an initial forward 
speed of 10 kt. A slight turn to the west is expected over the next 
two days before the cyclone dissipates. No substantial changes were 
made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model 
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 23.9N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde



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