000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101441 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today, and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h. Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky