Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Howard Forecast Discussion

WTPZ44 KNHC 101441

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in 
terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top 
temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and 
the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt 
for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard 
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable 
surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that 
Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today, 
and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the 
cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h.

Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed 
of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or 
so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly 
flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which 
remains based on the model consensus. 


INIT  10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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