000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100845 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Deep convection in the northern semicircle has continued to slowly decrease in depth and coverage while Howard moves over cooler waters. As a result, the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have reduced and the initial intensity estimate has been lower to 55 kt. Steady weakening is expected to continue as the cyclone approaches sea surface temperatures cooler than 24 degrees C and moves into an increasingly dry and stable environment. These oceanic and atmospheric factors should cause Howard to degenerate into a remnant low in about a day and a half. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt around a subtropical ridge. Howard is expected to turn west-northwestward later today followed by westward on Thursday when the weaker, more shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous official prediction and close to model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 23.5N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Beven