Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory

Published Date and Time: 2024-09-24 16:58:03



000
WTNT34 KNHC 242057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass,
Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico
Beach, Florida.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo
Catoche to Tulum.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from
Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west
of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward
to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West.  Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn 
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general 
northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through 
Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near 
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move 
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and 
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and 
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.  The storm 
is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure 
is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated 
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. 
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain 
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable 
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding 
likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain 
in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and 
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.  
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the 
tropical storm warning area Florida on Wednesday and spread 
northward through Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days.  Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



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