Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

572 
WTPZ43 KNHC 252034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024

Two ASCAT overpasses recently sampled the tropical disturbance well 
to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  These scatterometer 
observations revealed that the system now has a well-defined 
surface circulation with maximum winds of around 40 kt.  Although 
some higher wind speeds were noted, these vectors are believed to 
be rain-contaminated and a little inflated.  Based on these data, 
the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hector.  The 
low-level center is situated near the northern edge of a rather 
ragged-looking area of deep convection, and banding features are 
not well-defined at this time.

The earlier center fixes from conventional satellite imagery had 
considerable spread, making the initial motion a rather uncertain 
270/10 kt.  A mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of 
Hector for the next several days.  Therefore, a west-northwestward 
or westward track is forecast during the upcoming 5-day period.  
The NHC track forecast is close to the simple model consensus.

Over the next couple of days, Hector should be moving through an 
environment that is marginally conducive for strengthening.  The 
tropical cyclone is likely to pass near or over the wake of 
Hurricane Gilma, which could limit strengthening.  The official 
intensity forecast is similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS prediction, 
and shows only modest strengthening over the next few days followed 
by gradual weakening.  It should be noted that some of the global 
models, such as the ECMWF, suggest that Hector could weaken faster 
than shown here during the latter part of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 15.9N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.9N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 17.3N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 17.7N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch