Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261438
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

Microwave imagery continues to show evidence of northerly shear 
over the cyclone, with the mid-level center displaced a little to 
the south of the surface center.  However, the overall cloud 
pattern appears to be slightly better organized than it was 
yesterday with some evidence of banding features over the eastern 
portion of the circulation.  The advisory intensity has been 
increased a bit, to 45 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak 
Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from geostationary and microwave imagery give a 
westward motion at around 270/9 kt.  A weak low- to mid-level ridge 
is currently situated to the north of Hector, and the global 
models suggest that the ridge will build a little in a few days.  
The track guidance calls for a west-northwestward to westward 
heading with a slight increase in forward speed for the next 3-5 
days.  The official forecast is similar to the previous one and 
follows the dynamical model consensus predictions.

Although the vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong, 
Hector is expected to traverse marginal SSTs for the next few days 
while it moves over or near the oceanic wake of Hurricane Gilma.  
Also, the global models show the system encountering increasingly 
dry air at low- to mid-levels.  The intensity guidance does not 
call for much additional strengthening and the official 
forecast is at the high end of the model predictions.  With the
expected less favorable environment, a weakening trend is likely to 
begin in a couple of days.  Simulated satellite imagery from the 
ECMWF and GFS models show little or no deep convection associated 
with Hector by the end of the forecast period, so the official 
forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 16.2N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 17.1N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 17.4N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.6N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 17.7N 137.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 17.5N 142.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch