000 WTPA43 PHFO 152047 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 8 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 The satellite presentation of Greg has not changed significantly this morning, as relatively light, easterly vertical wind shear continues to restrict outflow within the eastern semicircle. Deep convection has been persistent to the southwest of the low-level circulation center, while banding has developed to the north. HFO and JTWC reported a Dvorak current intensity of 3.0/45 kt, and CIMSS ADT came in at 41 kt. Given no substantial change in the satellite presentation, the current intensity will be held at 45 kt for this advisory. The initial motion for this advisory is 275/12 kt. Greg is moving toward the west along the southern edge of a deep subtropical ridge. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today and Wednesday as Greg advances toward a weakness in the ridge aloft. A turn toward the west is expected Thursday as the ridge aloft begins to strengthen, causing Greg to pass several hundred miles south of Hawaii. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Friday as the weakening tropical cyclone is steered by the deep ridge to the north. The forecast track was altered little from the prior advisory and lies near TVCE in the middle of a relatively clustered guidance envelope. The greatest chance for strengthening lies within the next 24 hours or so, when vertical wind shear is expected to relax slightly and the SST remains around 28C. The statistical guidance has been tending to forecast intensification during this time and has been holding Greg at a higher intensity through the following several days. Meanwhile, the dynamical guidance is showing little to no intensification in the next 24 hours, followed by steady weakening, possibly due to drier air aloft disrupting the tropical cyclone and slightly cooler SST. The intensity forecast allows for intensification through Wednesday, followed by weakening from Thursday onward, with Greg becoming post-tropical on Saturday. This forecast follows the general trend of HCCA, though the official forecast is held slightly higher than this guidance through the next four days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 11.2N 147.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 11.6N 149.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 12.1N 151.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 12.5N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 12.6N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 12.3N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 11.9N 161.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 11.0N 166.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Wroe