Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion

Published Date and Time: 2024-09-13 10:38:27



000
WTNT42 KNHC 131438
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

While some west-northwesterly shear exists over the cyclone, 
a combination of Dvorak satellite estimates and improved structure 
on satellite imagery since earlier this morning has led to the 
depression being upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon.  The initial 
wind speed is set to 35 kt, based on consensus Dvorak estimates 
around that value.  

The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest 
(295/10 kt).   While a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the 
north of Gordon is becoming more pronounced due to the possible 
retrogression of an upper low to its east-northeast, this appears to 
be only slowing the storm down.  The track guidance indicates that 
the cyclone should turn westward by tonight and move slowly 
throughout much of the forecast period.  By days 4 and 5, an 
amplifying shortwave trough to the north could cause Gordon to 
gradually turn northwestward, assuming the system can re-intensify.  
The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the 
first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5 
following the latest model trends.

Gordon has some chance to intensify today before moving deeper into 
the moisture-starved environment across the tropical Atlantic, and 
some weakening is anticipated this weekend.  While the shear isn't 
expected to be too hostile, any re-intensification during next week 
is expected to be slow, and there is a chance that Gordon could 
degenerate into a remnant low.  For now, the official forecast keeps 
the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period.  
Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a 
slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 19.4N  38.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 19.8N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 20.0N  42.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 20.0N  43.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 19.7N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 19.5N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 19.4N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 19.5N  49.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 20.4N  50.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake



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