Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 120SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 122.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 123.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE  90SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.2N 128.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 131.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 135.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI