Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Frank Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290238
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
900 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Frank continues to become better organized this evening.  The storm 
has developed a well-defined outflow in the southern and eastern 
portions of the circulation.  Subjective satellite intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest Frank is a 55-kt tropical 
storm.  The initial intensity has been adjusted upward to match 
these estimates.

The vertical wind shear over Frank appears to be diminishing.  
Significant strengthening is expected since atmospheric and oceanic 
conditions are predicted to be conducive for intensification, and 
the most recent statistical model guidance indicates high 
probabilities for rapid intensification in the next 24 hours.  As a 
result, the official forecast now shows a faster rate of 
strengthening in the next day with a peak intensity of 95 kt by 48 
hours.  After that time, Frank is forecast to cross over cooler sea 
surface temperatures and into a more stable atmospheric environment. 
This should cause the system to weaken into a post-tropical cyclone 
by the end of the period.

Frank is moving westward at 9 kt.  The storm is forecast to turn to 
the west-northwest shortly as it is steered around the periphery of 
a subtropical ridge.  Within a day, Frank should turn northwestward 
as it moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  The NHC 
track prediction is very similar to the previous advisory forecast 
and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
expected to come close enough to one another to interact. Frank
will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and
Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity
of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 13.2N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 13.8N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 14.9N 114.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 16.1N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 17.4N 118.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 18.7N 119.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 19.9N 121.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 22.2N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 24.4N 127.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi



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