000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Frank continues to form deep convective bursts near and west of the estimated center, with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C. However, satellite imagery indicates this convection is not well-organized and the system currently lacks well-defined banding features. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates remain at 35 kt so the there is no change to the advisory intensity. Northeasterly shear is inhibiting increased organization and strengthening of the tropical storm. The shear is associated with a strong upper-level anticyclone near northwestern Mexico. Global model guidance predicts that this anticyclone will weaken during the next couple of days which should result in a relaxation of the shear. The SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing significantly in 24-36 hours. It also indicates that the other oceanic and environmental conditions will be conducive for Frank to possibly strengthen into a hurricane within three days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and slightly below the model consensus. The system is moving westward at 9 kt. Frank should gradually turn to the west-northwest over the next several days as it moves along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. A more northwestward motion is likely in 4-5 days as the cyclone nears the western edge of the ridge. A potential complication to the track forecast is the possible influence of a disturbance about 600 n mi to the west-northwest of Frank. The NHC track prediction is close to the latest model consensus aid, HCCA, and similar to the previous advisory forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 11.7N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 12.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 12.9N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 13.3N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 13.9N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 14.5N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 16.5N 118.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 18.9N 121.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci