Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Frank Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021438
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Organized deep convection associated with Frank ceased overnight, 
and the tropical storm should become post-tropical very soon. The 
weakening cyclone is moving northwest near 10 kt, and should 
gradually bend toward the north over the next 36 h, then 
north-northeast by Thursday, steered primarily by the low-level 
flow. The latest TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity estimate is 35 kt, so 
the initial intensity is set at that value. Continued weakening 
will occur over the next few days while Frank gradually spins down 
over cold water with little or no convection to sustain it. 
Dissipation is forecast by nearly all of the dynamical models near 
or just after 60 h. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or 
intensity forecasts, both of which are near the model consensus 
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 24.8N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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