Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Fiona Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT12 KNHC 150855
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072022               
0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  12(21)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)   2(22)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  12(30)   3(33)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   1(21)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  31(34)   6(40)   X(40)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  30(35)   4(39)   X(39)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT JOHN     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  30(36)   3(39)   X(39)
SAINT JOHN     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
SAINT JOHN     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  33(39)   4(43)   X(43)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)  18(43)   1(44)   X(44)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)  20(48)   1(49)   1(50)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)  17(49)   1(50)   X(50)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)  14(50)   X(50)   X(50)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  42(48)   7(55)   X(55)   X(55)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  41(47)   6(53)   X(53)   X(53)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  26(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)   X(16)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 



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