Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Fiona Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT12 KNHC 170857
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072022               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  10(28)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  23(38)   7(45)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   4(19)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  34(41)  19(60)   4(64)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)   3(30)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   4(17)   1(18)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   1(19)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  18(24)  28(52)   6(58)   2(60)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   3(24)   X(24)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  26(35)  13(48)   2(50)   X(50)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  10(23)   1(24)   X(24)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PONCE PR       34  2  52(54)  19(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
PONCE PR       50  X   6( 6)  11(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
PONCE PR       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

AGUADILLA PR   34  4  33(37)  31(68)   6(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   3( 3)  18(21)   5(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAN JUAN PR    34  3  34(37)  10(47)   1(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

VIEQUES PR     34 39  27(66)   4(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
VIEQUES PR     50  1   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT THOMAS   34 37  16(53)   2(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
SAINT THOMAS   50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT JOHN     34 38  13(51)   2(53)   1(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)
SAINT JOHN     50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT CROIX    34 70  10(80)   1(81)   X(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)
SAINT CROIX    50  9  10(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 29   2(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

SABA           34 74   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)

ST EUSTATIUS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

BARBUDA        34  9   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ANTIGUA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GUADELOUPE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

AVES           34 73   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)

DOMINICA       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 



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