Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 051449
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the disturbance 
located well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico has 
continued to become better organized, and that it now has sufficient 
convection and a well-enough defined circulation to be considered a 
tropical cyclone.  With an initial intensity of 35 kt based on 
earlier scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on 
Tropical Storm Fabio.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 310/10.  Fabio's motion 
should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to 
the west, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and westward at 
an increased forward speed around the north side of Emilia through 
the next 48 h.  

The intensity forecast is based on the global model forecasts 
that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia in the not 
too distant future.  Some strengthening is expected during the next 
12-24 h.  After that, the global models are forecasting that Fabio 
will dissipate as it is absorbed into Emilia by the 60 h point.  
The intensity forecast and dissipation time lean toward the GFS and 
Canadian model solutions, which keep Fabio separate from Emilia 
through about 48 h.  This forecast is low confidence due to the 
possibility that Fabio could try to absorb Emilia.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 14.8N 106.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 16.3N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 17.6N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 18.2N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven