Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

889 
WTPZ41 KNHC 071440
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery
shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and
vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia
continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio.
Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared
convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level
center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.

Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio
is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion
should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer
circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends.
Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio
appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The
NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h
before merging with Emilia on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart