Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 070850
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Thunderstorms associated with Fabio collapsed overnight and small 
bursts of convection are forming to the northeast of the exposed 
center.  Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have trended 
weaker this cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. 
The storm is racing off to the west at 280/21 kt.  Fabio should turn 
toward the west-southwest later today as the cyclone moves closer to 
Tropical Storm Emilia.  The official track forecast is unchanged 
from the previous advisory.

Vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should
continue to weaken Fabio.  Global models are still showing the
vortex being absorbed into Emilia's circulation in a day or so.
The intensity forecast has been nudged downward slightly from the
earlier prediction due to the weaker initial intensity.
Dissipation is still expected on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 20.6N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 20.9N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 20.8N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci