Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

678 
WTPZ41 KNHC 070248
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Deep convection associated with Fabio has decreased significantly 
since the previous advisory, with most of the convection off to 
the northeast of the low-level center. The latest subjective 
intensity estimates are 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and recent 
objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 35 to 53 kt. 
The intensity is lowered a bit to 45 kt, which is a compromise of 
the data.

Moderate westerly wind shear should continue to be an issue for the 
next 12 h or so.  After that, Fabio will increasingly interact with 
Emilia as SSTs along Fabio's path decrease to below 26C in 18 to 24 
h. These factors are likely to cause some additional weakening 
before Fabio dissipates or merges with Emilia.

Fabio should move on a west-northwest course over the next 24 h.  
The 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF models are both forecasting Fabio to 
dissipate or merge with Emilia in 24 to 36 h. Therefore, the NHC 
forecast now calls for dissipation by hour 36.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 20.0N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 20.6N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven