Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

665 
WTPZ41 KNHC 052111
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of Fabio is on 
the north side of an area of strong, but loosely curved, convective 
bands.  Scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data received 
since the last advisory indicate that the circulation is closed and 
that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in the eastern semicircle.  
This is in good agreement with satellite intensity estimates from 
TAFB and SAB, and it is the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 310/13 kt.  Fabio's motion should be 
dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the 
west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and 
westward at an increased forward speed around the north side of 
Emilia for the next 36-48 h.  The new forecast track has only 
minor changes from the previous track.

Some strengthening should occur in the next 12 h or so.  After 
that, the intensity forecast is mainly based on the global model 
forecasts that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia, with 
the various model times of this absorption being between 12-36 h.  
The official forecast shows Fabio dissipating between 36-48 h in 
best agreement with the GFS model.  However, the cyclone could 
dissipate at any time before then.  Confidence in this forecast is 
increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that 
Emilia will absorb Fabio.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 15.6N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven