Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 160835
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 105W       34 19  74(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
15N 105W       50  2  61(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
15N 105W       64  1  27(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

L CARDENAS     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  39(52)   8(60)   X(60)   X(60)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  34(47)   1(48)   X(48)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  56(57)  21(78)   1(79)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  22(45)   X(45)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  16(26)   X(26)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   7(26)   X(26)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  22(43)   X(43)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   X(15)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  35(35)  29(64)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  19(29)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



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