Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Discussion


232 
WTPZ41 KNHC 200835
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Estelle's cloud pattern has been reduced to small bursts of deep 
convection near its center this morning. A 0427 UTC GMI microwave 
pass revealed a couple of fragmented curved bands around its 
circulation, but cloud top temperatures in this region have warmed 
during the past several hours. Unfortunately, scatterometer data 
failed to sample the inner core of Estelle this morning. A blend of 
the current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and 
SAB (T3.0/45 kt) support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt.

A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Estelle is steering the 
tropical storm toward the west-northwest at 295/12 kt. This general 
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the 
next couple of days or so. Then, a westward turn is forecast as the 
shallow, weakening system becomes steered by the low-level easterly 
trade winds. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous 
one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Decreasing SSTs along Estelle's path will make it increasingly 
difficult for the cyclone to sustain deep, organized convection 
during the next couple of days. Continued weakening is expected, and 
Estelle is likely to lose all convection by Thursday as it moves 
into a drier and more stable environment over sub-22 deg C waters. 
The latest NHC forecast calls for Estelle to become a post-tropical 
remnant low on Thursday and dissipate this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 20.6N 119.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 21.1N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 21.7N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0600Z 22.7N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1800Z 23.0N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z 23.1N 128.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




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