000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191443 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt, respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent a blend of the classifications. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory and close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci