Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 192033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
2100 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 116.9W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 116.9W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI




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