Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.7W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 135SE  90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.7W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.3N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.7N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 114.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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