Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Advisory


119 
WTPZ21 KNHC 162033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 105.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.2N 113.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART





Source link