Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Advisory



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161447
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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