Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Advisory


017 
WTPZ21 KNHC 201435
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 120.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI





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