Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FONT15 KNHC 180843
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)  23(59)   X(59)   X(59)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   X(20)   X(20)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  34(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   8( 8)  15(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

BERMUDA        34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH