607
FONT15 KNHC 130242
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 23(57)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PONCE PR 34 X 7( 7) 26(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 41(41) 32(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
VIEQUES PR 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 55(56) 24(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 8( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 1 61(62) 11(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SAINT CROIX 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 53(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABA 34 4 71(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
SABA 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 7 69(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 15 63(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BARBUDA 34 19 20(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ANTIGUA 34 19 17(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
GUADELOUPE 34 41 5(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
AVES 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities
12
Aug