Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 082039
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia appears to be in its final stage as a tropical cyclone.  Deep 
convection is limited to a few small clusters over the western 
semicircle as the system is being influenced by some easterly 
vertical wind shear.  The intensity is held at 35 kt for this 
advisory in general agreement with objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS, although this could be generous.

Visible imagery indicates that the center appears to be located 
somewhat to the east of previous estimates.  After some adjustments, 
the initial motion estimate is a little slower, or 290/12 kt.  A 
mid-level ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of Emilia 
for the next few days.  Based on this steering pattern, the cyclone 
should continue its generally west-northwestward heading for the 
next day or two followed by a more westward to west-southwestward 
movement within the shallow low-level flow.  The NHC forecast track 
is close to the multi-model consensus guidance TVCE.

Over the next day or two, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs 
cooler than 23 deg C in an environment of relatively dry air.  This 
should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low very soon 
as shown by the official intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 21.6N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch