Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080851
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia is quickly weakening.  Two scatterometer passes from 0442 and
0535 UTC showed winds up to 35 kt with an elongated center and a
large area of light winds in the southwest quadrant.  Even the area
of tropical-storm-force winds shrunk notably by the time of
the latter ASCAT pass. The center has an isolated, small burst of
convection with some decaying thunderstorms in fragmented rainbands
around the northern semicircle of the circulation.  The initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.  The oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are becoming increasingly hostile.  Emilia is expected to
continue weakening over the next couple of days and is now forecast
to become a remnant low on Friday. Though, if satellite trends
continue, this could occur sooner.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 18 kt.  This
motion, with a decreased forward speed, should continue though the
weekend as Emilia is steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the
storm's northeast.  The latest NHC track forecast is essentially
unchanged from the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 21.1N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci