Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

676 
WTPZ45 KNHC 072036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Emilia's cloud pattern has become a little ragged-looking since 
earlier today, and the low-level center appears to be located near 
the northern edge of the main area of deep convection.  The storm's 
circulation has been interacting with Fabio, which is rotating 
around the western side of Emilia while dissipating.  Emilia is 
expected to absorb the remnant disturbance of Fabio within the next 
day or so.  The current intensity is set at 55 kt based on a blend 
of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  This is 
also within the range of various objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS.

The system appears to be continuing on a generally northwestward 
track, with an initial motion estimate of 305/16 kt.  The steering 
flow associated with a mid-level ridge to the north of Emilia is 
likely to cause a generally west-northwestward motion for the next 
few days.  The official forecast track lies roughly in the middle 
of the track guidance suite.

Although the vertical shear over Emilia is expected to remain fairly 
low, The cyclone will be traversing progressively cooler waters 
during the next 48 hours or so.  Low- to mid-level relative humidity 
is also forecast to decrease during this period as well.  Therefore, 
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days and 
Emilia should become a post-tropical remnant low on Friday.  This is 
similar to the scenario shown by the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 19.1N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 20.5N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N 123.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 22.2N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 22.8N 127.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/0600Z 23.4N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 23.9N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z 24.9N 135.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch