Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 032042
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  63.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  63.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  62.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N  64.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N  65.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N  66.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N  66.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N  66.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.1N  66.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N  65.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.7N  63.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N  63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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