Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Danielle Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 020233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

The overall organization of the tropical cyclone has continued to 
increase since the previous advisory.  The primary convective band 
now wraps nearly completely around the center, and there have been 
occasional hints of a ragged eye.  Earlier microwave imagery also  
revealed the presence of a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature.  
Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0 (45 kt) and 
T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  Given the continued 
improvement in structure, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt, 
the higher end of those estimates. 

Despite the high latitude of the tropical cyclone, atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional 
strengthening over the next 2-3 days.  As mentioned previously, the 
cyclone is located over anomalously warm waters, and the vertical 
wind shear is forecast to remain generally low through 72 hours.  
As a result, continued steady strengthening is expected, and 
Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.  By days 4 and 
5, cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing shear are likely 
to cause some weakening. The NHC wind speed forecast is in good 
agreement with the latest intensity consensus aids, and shows the 
same peak intensity as the previous official forecast. 

Danielle continues its slow eastward motion of around 090 degrees 
at 2 kt.  The cyclone is situated within an area of light steering 
flow under an omega block, which is expected to cause Danielle to 
meander during the next few days.  The strong mid-level ridge to 
the north is forecast to weaken and shift eastward early next week.  
By days 4 and 5, an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to 
lift Danielle northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed. 
Little change was required to the early portion of the track 
forecast, but the latter part has been adjusted eastward to be in 
better alignment with the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means, and the 
latest multi-model consensus aids. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 38.0N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 37.9N  43.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 37.9N  44.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 37.9N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 38.0N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 38.2N  44.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 38.9N  44.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 40.8N  42.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 42.6N  39.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



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