Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion

672 
WTPZ44 KNHC 051448
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Daniel's organization continues to decrease, and it has become 
difficult to distinguish Daniel from the surrounding ITCZ/Monsoon 
Trough convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates 
vary around 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt 
for this advisory. 

It is very hard to determine how well-defined Daniel's surface 
circulation is, so its possible that the cyclone is already near 
dissipation, but this will be easier to determine after the sun has 
been up over Daniel for longer. Regardless, the system should not 
be around as a tropical cyclone for much longer as it is quickly 
moving into a more hostile environment. Some intensity models, 
including the GFS, indicate Daniel could dissipate as soon as 
this afternoon. Even if it maintains its circulation for a few 
days, all models suggest it will lose deep convection by tomorrow 
evening and become a remnant low.

Daniel has accelerated slightly toward the east-northeast, and 
should continue heading in that direction today, within low- to 
mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow. After that, dynamical models 
continue to indicate that Daniel or its remnants will bend 
northward, and then westward, around the outer circulation of 
Carlotta. The NHC forecast continues to closely follow the consensus 
models and is very similar to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.6N 127.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.0N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky