Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050236
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Daniel's cloud pattern this evening is characterized by a few 
intermittently bursting deep convective clusters surrounding the 
poorly defined and elongated surface circulation.  The satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained unchanged, and the 
initial intensity is held at 35 kt. 

Warm oceanic surface temperatures and a modest wind shear
environment should allow for some slight strengthening through
Monday.  While the cyclone moves in a counter-clockwise motion
around the eastern periphery of more prominent Carlotta, increasing 
dry air entrainment is expected to induce a weakening trend through 
the forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast shows Daniel 
becoming a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday.

The cyclone's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, 
050/8 kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level
southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through Monday.
Afterward, global models agree that Daniel will move into the
eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow, resulting in
a turn north and northwestward before it degenerates into an open
trough on Thursday, or sooner.  The official forecast track 
follows suit and is similar to the previous advisory and the 
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 14.2N 129.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 16.6N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 19.1N 128.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z 19.9N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts