000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel's convective structure continues to sputter along, with the coldest cloud tops organized in two regions to the northeast and southwest of the center, which appears to be mostly exposed this morning. The latest round of both subjective and objective intensity guidance has not changed much from overnight, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory. It appears that the tropical storm is finally starting to track more north-northeastward this morning, with the estimated motion at 030/4 kt. A somewhat faster northeastward motion is expected to begin later today through Monday as Daniel's motion is influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal flow being picked up by Carlotta passing to the north. The global models still show a turn north and northwestward as Daniel gets caught in the outer periphery of Carlotta's larger circulation. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior advisory, close to the multi-model consensus. While the vertical wind shear that was previously affecting Daniel is starting to subside, there is quite a bit of environmental dry air to the north of the storm, which will likely keep it in check, and only a modest amount of intensification is forecasted. After 48 h, this dry air is expected to fully envelop the circulation, choking off the remaining convection, marking the storm's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low is finally forecast to open up into a trough by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion
04
Aug