Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Colin Wind Speed Probabilities


466 
FONT13 KNHC 022035
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022               
2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  2   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  4   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

RALEIGH NC     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ROCKY MT NC    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  9  33(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CHERRY PT NC   34 35   6(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)

NEW RIVER NC   34 34  18(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
NEW RIVER NC   50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 42  11(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SURF CITY NC   34 57   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
SURF CITY NC   50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34 60   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 89   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)

FLORENCE SC    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34 28   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 21   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



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